Prediction markets: news reaction, clues, gas/CRA/era markets, intel broker, bigger stakes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/Decentralized.Domain.Tests/Program.cs

@@ -1190,6 +1190,55 @@ internal static class Program
             Check(caught > 15 && caught < 45, $"分到两个钱包的内幕持仓合计后约一半被查：{caught}/60");
         });
 
+        Test("预测市场：夜间消息反应、情报、新盘口先验", () =>
+        {
+            var rng = new Rng(9);
+            var bk = new PredictBook();
+            var m = PredictMarket.Create(++bk.Seq, PredictKind.Event, "e", "t", 0, 5, 8, 9, 0.1); bk.Markets.Add(m);
+            double sum = 0; int n = 400;
+            for (int i = 0; i < n; i++) { m.QYes = m.QNo + m.B * Math.Log(0.1 / 0.9); bk.Drift(5, x => 0.9, rng); sum += m.PYes; }
+            Check(sum / n > 0.4 && sum / n < 0.6, $"一晚把 10% 往 90% 拉近约一半：{sum / n:0.00}");
+            var closing = PredictMarket.Create(++bk.Seq, PredictKind.Event, "e", "t", 0, 5, 6, 6, 0.1); bk.Markets.Add(closing);
+            double before = closing.PYes; bk.Drift(5, x => 0.9, rng);
+            Check(Math.Abs(closing.PYes - before) < 1e-12, "明天封盘的盘口不再反应");
+            Check(m.PYes >= Tuning.PredictPMin && m.PYes <= Tuning.PredictPMax, "价格夹在范围内");
+            // 反应是有噪声的：同一目标多次结果不全一样
+            var set = new System.Collections.Generic.HashSet<double>();
+            for (int i = 0; i < 20; i++) { m.QYes = m.QNo + m.B * Math.Log(0.1 / 0.9); bk.Drift(5, x => 0.5, rng); set.Add(Math.Round(m.PYes, 4)); }
+            Check(set.Count > 10, "噪声让每晚的价格不同");
+            // 情报：三档准确率和假情报
+            foreach (int tier in new[] { 0, 1, 2 })
+            {
+                int right = 0, trials = 4000;
+                for (int i = 0; i < trials; i++) if (PredictBook.MakeTip(m, true, tier, rng).Claim) right++;
+                double expect = (1 - Tuning.IntelFake) * Tuning.IntelTipAcc[tier] + Tuning.IntelFake * 0;
+                Check(Math.Abs(right / (double)trials - expect) < 0.04, $"第 {tier + 1} 档说对的比例约 {expect:0.00}：{right / (double)trials:0.00}");
+            }
+            Check(Math.Abs(PredictBook.MakeTip(m, true, 2, rng).Paid - Tuning.IntelTipPrice[2] * m.MaxLoss) < 1e-9, "价格按盘口最大亏损的比例");
+            // 到期后消息一起清掉
+            bk.Tips.Add(new PredictTip { Market = closing.Id });
+            var w = new Wallet { Address = "x" };
+            bk.Night(6, new string[0], mm => true, _ => w, rng);
+            Check(bk.Tips.Count == 0, "盘口结算后情报作废");
+            // gas / CRA / 时代 先验
+            double flat = PredictMath.GasFlat(10, 1.2);
+            double phase0 = PredictMath.GasAtLeast(10, 0, 1.2), sum2 = 0;
+            for (int ph = 0; ph < Tuning.TxGasPeriod; ph++) sum2 += PredictMath.GasAtLeast(10, ph, 1.2);
+            Check(Math.Abs(flat - sum2 / Tuning.TxGasPeriod) < 1e-12 && phase0 >= 0 && phase0 <= 1, "gas 先验是各相位的平均");
+            Check(PredictMath.GasAtLeast(10, 0, 0.1) == 1 && PredictMath.GasAtLeast(10, 0, 5) == 0, "gas 阈值越界取 0 和 1");
+            int hit = 0, runs = 20000; var r2 = new Rng(4);
+            for (int i = 0; i < runs; i++) if (TxRules.Gas(10, 3, r2) >= 1.3) hit++;
+            Check(Math.Abs(hit / (double)runs - PredictMath.GasAtLeast(10, 3, 1.3)) < 0.02, "gas 概率和真实抽样对得上");
+            double h = 1 - Math.Pow(1 - Tuning.CraSpiralWeekly, 1.0 / 7);
+            Check(Math.Abs(PredictMath.CraWarnProb(1e9, 100, 10, 12, 14, h) - (1 - Math.Pow(1 - h, 3)) * Math.Pow(1 - h, 2)) < 1e-9, "补贴池充足时按日概率，窗口前发出的不算");
+            Check(PredictMath.CraWarnProb(150, 100, 10, 11, 12, h) > 0.99, "补贴池撑不过窗口前一晚就必发");
+            Check(PredictMath.CraWarnProb(50, 100, 10, 10, 10, h) == 1, "归零那晚必发");
+            Check(PredictMath.EraProb(60, 61, 63, -1) > 0 && PredictMath.EraProb(60, 61, 63, -1) < 0.2, "没预警时在 50–90 里均匀，3 天窗口很小");
+            Check(Math.Abs(PredictMath.EraProb(60, 62, 63, 58) - 0.5) < 1e-9 || PredictMath.EraProb(60, 62, 63, 58) > 0, "预警后落在 4–7 天内");
+            Check(PredictMath.EraProb(60, 100, 105, -1) == 0, "窗口在时代区间之外为 0");
+            Check(PredictMath.EraProb(60, 62, 65, 58) > 0.5 && PredictMath.EraProb(60, 70, 71, 58) == 0, "预警后窗口覆盖区间就是高概率");
+        });
+
         Test("预测市场：先验概率", () =>
         {
             Check(Math.Abs(PredictMath.PurityAtLeast(8500, 8000, 8999) - 0.5) < 1e-9, "纯度 8500 以上一半");