Halving now raises the price anchor (pass-through 0.6, ramp the week before) with a pre-halving news item

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs

@@ -16,6 +16,8 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
     public sealed class Market
     {
         public double Sentiment = 1.0;
+        /// <summary>供给因子：出块奖励减半抬高挖矿成本，价格锚随之上移；减半前一周有预期行情。每晚向目标靠拢。</summary>
+        public double Supply = 1.0;
         public List<Pool> Pools = new List<Pool>();
         /// <summary>开门时的参考价，夜间用它和收盘价算当日均价（合约的标记价）。</summary>
         public double OpenPrice = Tuning.PscStartPrice;
@@ -42,9 +44,20 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// <summary>PSC 的参考价（信用点）。</summary>
         public double Price => Main.Price;
 
+        /// <summary>供给因子的目标：奖励比起始奖励每少一半，锚上移 2^传导指数；减半前 7 天内再逐日加预期。</summary>
+        public static double SupplyTarget(int day, double reward)
+        {
+            double t = Math.Pow(Tuning.BlockReward / Math.Max(1e-9, reward), Tuning.HalvingPassThrough);
+            int toHalving = Tuning.HalvingDays - day % Tuning.HalvingDays;   // 减半当晚 day % HalvingDays == 0，那天之后又是一个完整周期
+            if (toHalving <= Tuning.HalvingRampDays) t *= 1 + Tuning.HalvingRamp * (Tuning.HalvingRampDays - toHalving + 1) / Tuning.HalvingRampDays;
+            return t;
+        }
+
+        public void UpdateSupply(int day, double reward) => Supply += (SupplyTarget(day, reward) - Supply) * Tuning.SupplyAdjust;
+
         public double Anchor(ICollection<MarketEvent> active)
         {
-            double a = Tuning.PscStartPrice * Sentiment;
+            double a = Tuning.PscStartPrice * Sentiment * Supply;
             if (active.Contains(MarketEvent.Blackout)) a *= 1.10;
             if (active.Contains(MarketEvent.Crackdown)) a *= 0.92;
             return a;