Stage 9.1: story links (Serpico, Eleanor, Officer Lun) and newspaper importance fix

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Exchange.cs

@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
             History.RemoveAll(h => h.Key <= day - Tuning.AmlWindowDays);
             double recent = History.Sum(h => h.Value);
             double value = amount * price(Assets.CRC);
-            r.HitChance = HitChance(value, taint, recent, rent, fromMixer || wallet.Flagged);
+            r.HitChance = Math.Min(1, HitChance(value, taint, recent, rent, fromMixer || wallet.Flagged) * StoryMods.Current.Aml(day));
             wallet.Add(Assets.CRC, -amount);
             wallet.Taint -= taint;
             wallet.Basis -= basis;

src/Decentralized.Domain/Mixer.cs

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// <summary>镇压事件开始：有一定概率被制裁，持续若干天。</summary>
         public void OnEvent(MarketEvent ev, int day, Rng rng)
         {
-            if (ev == MarketEvent.Crackdown && rng.Chance(Tuning.MixerSanctionChance)) SanctionedUntil = day + Tuning.MixerSanctionDays;
+            if (ev == MarketEvent.Crackdown && rng.Chance(Math.Min(1, Tuning.MixerSanctionChance * StoryMods.Current.Sanction(day)))) SanctionedUntil = day + Tuning.MixerSanctionDays;
         }
 
         /// <summary>每晚：到期的存入提回钱包（污点按轮数降低），在途的各有小概率跑路。</summary>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs

@@ -195,7 +195,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
             bool insider = PosAll(m.Id).Sum(x => x.Insider) >= Tuning.PredictInsiderShare * m.ShareCap;
             if (pos.Yes) m.QYes -= pos.Shares; else m.QNo -= pos.Shares;
             Positions.Remove(pos);
-            if (rng != null && insider && pos.Insider > 0 && got > pos.Cost && rng.Chance(Tuning.PredictInsiderCatch))
+            if (rng != null && insider && pos.Insider > 0 && got > pos.Cost && rng.Chance(Math.Min(1, Tuning.PredictInsiderCatch * StoryMods.Current.Enforce(day))))
             {
                 fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, (got - pos.Cost) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare);
                 got = 0;
@@ -241,7 +241,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
                 st.Count++; st.SumP0 += m.P0; if (res.Value) st.Hits++;
                 var winners = all.Where(x => x.Yes == res.Value).ToList();
                 // 操纵：行情盘上，赢家的方向和玩家推价的方向一致时按推价幅度被查——本金和收益都没收，收益的一半记罪证
-                if (m.Kind == PredictKind.Price && winners.Count > 0 && winners.Any(x => x.Yes ? push > 0 : push < 0) && rng.Chance(Market.ManipChance(push)))
+                if (m.Kind == PredictKind.Price && winners.Count > 0 && winners.Any(x => x.Yes ? push > 0 : push < 0) && rng.Chance(Math.Min(1, Market.ManipChance(push) * StoryMods.Current.Enforce(day))))
                 {
                     double profitM = winners.Sum(x => x.Shares) - cost;
                     evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "manip", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = cost, Fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, Math.Max(0, profitM) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare) });
@@ -257,7 +257,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
                 {
                     double payout = winners.Sum(x => x.Shares), profit = payout - cost;
                     // 内幕持仓按盘口合计（拆到几个钱包里也一样）
-                    if (all.Sum(x => x.Insider) >= Tuning.PredictInsiderShare * m.ShareCap && rng.Chance(Tuning.PredictInsiderCatch))
+                    if (all.Sum(x => x.Insider) >= Tuning.PredictInsiderShare * m.ShareCap && rng.Chance(Math.Min(1, Tuning.PredictInsiderCatch * StoryMods.Current.Enforce(day))))
                     {
                         // 查实：本金和收益全部没收
                         evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "caught", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = payout, Fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, Math.Max(0, profit) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare) });

src/Decentralized.Domain/Stablecoins.cs

@@ -34,13 +34,13 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// <summary>减记发生时返回 CRC 持有量要乘的系数（其余情况为 1）。</summary>
         public double OnEventStart(MarketEvent ev, int day, Rng rng)
         {
-            if (ev == MarketEvent.RevRaidUpper && CrcDepegEnd < 0 && rng.Chance(Tuning.CrcDepegChance))
+            if (ev == MarketEvent.RevRaidUpper && CrcDepegEnd < 0 && rng.Chance(Tuning.CrcDepegChance * StoryMods.Current.CrcDepeg))
             {
                 Crc = rng.Range(Tuning.CrcDepegMin, Tuning.CrcDepegMax);
                 CrcDepegEnd = day + rng.Range(Tuning.CrcDepegDaysMin, Tuning.CrcDepegDaysMax);
-                CrcHaircutPending = rng.Chance(Tuning.CrcHaircutChance);
+                CrcHaircutPending = rng.Chance(Math.Min(1, Tuning.CrcHaircutChance * StoryMods.Current.CrcHaircut));
             }
-            if ((ev == MarketEvent.GangWar || ev == MarketEvent.Crackdown) && CrtDepegEnd < 0 && rng.Chance(Tuning.CrtDepegChance))
+            if ((ev == MarketEvent.GangWar || ev == MarketEvent.Crackdown) && CrtDepegEnd < 0 && rng.Chance(Tuning.CrtDepegChance * StoryMods.Current.CrtDepeg))
             {
                 Crt = rng.Range(Tuning.CrtDepegMin, Tuning.CrtDepegMax);
                 CrtDepegEnd = day + rng.Range(Tuning.CrtDepegDaysMin, Tuning.CrtDepegDaysMax);
@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
 
         /// <summary>镇压开始时，玩家持有的 CRT 被冻结一半的概率：黑市声望 0 时 40%，50 以上为 0。</summary>
         public static double CrtFreezeChance(double blackMarketRep) =>
-            Math.Max(0, Tuning.CrtFreezeBase - blackMarketRep * Tuning.CrtFreezePerRep);
+            Math.Max(0, Tuning.CrtFreezeBase - blackMarketRep * Tuning.CrtFreezePerRep) * StoryMods.Current.CrtFreeze;
 
         /// <summary>镇压开始时是否冻结玩家的 CRT：按黑市声望，声望越低越容易被黑市"出卖"。</summary>
         public static bool CrtFrozenByCrackdown(double blackMarketRep, Rng rng) => rng.Chance(CrtFreezeChance(blackMarketRep));
@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
             {
                 CraSubsidy -= (Tuning.CraNpcStake + playerStaked) * CraRate;
                 bool revFalling = RevHistory.Count == 7 && RevPower < RevHistory[0] - 5;
-                double weekly = Tuning.CraSpiralWeekly * (revFalling ? 3 : 1);
+                double weekly = Tuning.CraSpiralWeekly * (revFalling ? 3 : 1) * StoryMods.Current.CraSpiral(day);
                 double daily = 1 - Math.Pow(1 - weekly, 1.0 / 7);
                 if (CraWarnDay < 0 && (rng.Chance(daily) || CraSubsidy <= 0))
                 {
@@ -128,7 +128,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
             }
             else
             {
-                Spark *= Math.Exp(rng.Gauss() * Tuning.SparkVol);
+                Spark *= Math.Exp(rng.Gauss() * Tuning.SparkVol) * StoryMods.Current.TakeSparkPush();
                 Spark += (Tuning.SparkStart - Spark) * Tuning.SparkRevert;
                 Spark = Math.Max(Tuning.SparkStart * Tuning.SparkMinMult, Math.Min(Tuning.SparkStart * Tuning.SparkMaxMult, Spark));
             }

src/Decentralized.Domain/StoryMods.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+
+namespace Decentralized.Domain
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// 游戏剧情选择对本 mod 世界的影响：一组倍率和期限，随存档保存。各处的概率读 <see cref="Current"/>（接入层读档时指向存档里的这一份）。
+    /// 每个选择只生效一次（Applied 记下键）。
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class StoryMods
+    {
+        /// <summary>当前生效的那一份。接入层读档时设成存档里的；测试里可以换。</summary>
+        public static StoryMods Current = new StoryMods();
+
+        public List<string> Applied = new List<string>();
+        /// <summary>CRC 脱锚、CRC 托管银行减记、CRT 脱锚、镇压时 CRT 被出卖的概率倍率（永久）。</summary>
+        public double CrcDepeg = 1, CrcHaircut = 1, CrtDepeg = 1, CrtFreeze = 1;
+        /// <summary>到这一天之前 CRA 螺旋概率减半。</summary>
+        public int CraSafeUntil = -1;
+        /// <summary>治安部整顿到这一天：出金审查命中率、混币器制裁概率、操纵与内幕查处概率上调。</summary>
+        public int SecUntil = -1;
+        /// <summary>伦警官被捕后的立威期到这一天：出金审查、操纵、内幕查处概率上调。</summary>
+        public int LunUntil = -1;
+        /// <summary>SPARK 每晚额外乘的倍数，还剩几晚。</summary>
+        public double SparkPush = 1;
+        public int SparkPushNights;
+
+        public bool Has(string key) => Applied.Contains(key);
+
+        public double CraSpiral(int day) => day < CraSafeUntil ? Tuning.StoryCraSpiralMult : 1;
+        public double Aml(int day) => (day < SecUntil ? Tuning.StorySecAmlMult : 1) * (day < LunUntil ? Tuning.StoryLunMult : 1);
+        public double Sanction(int day) => day < SecUntil ? Tuning.StorySecSanctionMult : 1;
+        /// <summary>操纵检出、内幕查处的概率倍率。</summary>
+        public double Enforce(int day) => (day < SecUntil ? Tuning.StorySecEnforceMult : 1) * (day < LunUntil ? Tuning.StoryLunMult : 1);
+
+        /// <summary>每晚取 SPARK 的额外倍数（推完就是 1）。</summary>
+        public double TakeSparkPush()
+        {
+            if (SparkPushNights <= 0) return 1;
+            SparkPushNights--;
+            return SparkPush;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// 记下一个剧情选择并设置倍率。返回 false 表示已经生效过。CRA 补贴池的注资由接入层做（这里只管倍率）。
+        /// key：serpico_rev / serpico_bm / serpico_sec / eleanor_leak / eleanor_return / lun_arrested。
+        /// </summary>
+        public bool Apply(string key, int day)
+        {
+            if (Has(key)) return false;
+            Applied.Add(key);
+            switch (key)
+            {
+                case "serpico_rev":
+                    CraSafeUntil = day + Tuning.StorySecDays;
+                    PushSpark(Tuning.StorySerpicoSpark);
+                    break;
+                case "serpico_bm":
+                    CrtDepeg *= Tuning.StoryBmCrtMult; CrtFreeze *= Tuning.StoryBmCrtMult;
+                    break;
+                case "serpico_sec":
+                    SecUntil = day + Tuning.StorySecDays;
+                    break;
+                case "eleanor_leak":
+                    CrcHaircut *= Tuning.StoryLeakHaircutMult;
+                    PushSpark(Tuning.StoryLeakSpark);
+                    break;
+                case "eleanor_return":
+                    CrcDepeg *= Tuning.StoryReturnCrcMult;
+                    break;
+                case "lun_arrested":
+                    LunUntil = day + Tuning.StoryLunDays;
+                    break;
+            }
+            return true;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>SPARK 在接下来几晚里一共涨到 total 倍（每晚乘相同的倍数）。</summary>
+        private void PushSpark(double total)
+        {
+            int n = Tuning.StorySparkNights;
+            // 已经在推：把剩下的叠上去
+            double left = SparkPushNights > 0 ? Math.Pow(SparkPush, SparkPushNights) : 1;
+            SparkPush = Math.Pow(left * total, 1.0 / n);
+            SparkPushNights = n;
+        }
+    }
+}

src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs

@@ -235,6 +235,17 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public const double FakeSupportChance = 0.04, FakeTransferShare = 0.08;
         public const int ScamMinDay = 10;
 
+        /// <summary>剧情联动：塞尔皮科证据交给革命军（CRA 补贴池注资、螺旋概率倍率与期限、SPARK 几晚内涨到的倍数）、交给黑市（CRT 脱锚与被出卖的倍率）、
+        /// 交给治安部（期限内出金审查命中、混币器制裁、操纵与内幕查处的倍率）；埃莉诺泄露数据盘（CRC 托管减记倍率、SPARK 涨幅）、交回（CRC 脱锚倍率）；
+        /// 伦警官被捕（期限与查处倍率）；SPARK 推涨分几晚走完。</summary>
+        public const double StoryRevSubsidy = 10000, StoryCraSpiralMult = 0.5, StorySerpicoSpark = 1.2;
+        public const double StoryBmCrtMult = 0.5;
+        public const int StorySecDays = 30;
+        public const double StorySecAmlMult = 1.5, StorySecSanctionMult = 1.5, StorySecEnforceMult = 1.3;
+        public const double StoryLeakHaircutMult = 2, StoryLeakSpark = 1.15, StoryReturnCrcMult = 0.5;
+        public const int StoryLunDays = 14, StorySparkNights = 5;
+        public const double StoryLunMult = 1.3;
+
         /// <summary>行情图的 NPC 成交量：每天的基础量占主池深度的比例（按币种），价格波动越大成交越多（|涨跌幅| × 倍数），再乘 0.6–1.4 的随机。</summary>
         public const double ChartVolPsc = 0.12, ChartVolCrc = 0.10, ChartVolCrt = 0.06, ChartVolCra = 0.04, ChartVolSpark = 0.03, ChartVolPonero = 0.01, ChartVolMove = 8;