Stage 7 numeric pass and market legibility (price moves, history, insider exits)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized/PredictGame.cs

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ namespace Decentralized
     public static class PredictGame
     {
         public static readonly string[] Factions = { "FACTION_SECURITY", "FACTION_REVOLUTION", "FACTION_LOWER_LEVEL", "FACTION_UPPER_LEVEL", "FACTION_BLACK_MARKET" };
-        private static readonly double[] GutterCuts = { 8200, 8400, 8600, 8800 }, RustCuts = { 9030, 9060, 9090, 9120 };
+        private static readonly double[] GutterCuts = { 8300, 8700 }, RustCuts = { 9050, 9100 };
         private static readonly double[] PriceMult = { 0.9, 0.95, 1.0, 1.05, 1.1 };
         private static readonly double[] GasCuts = { 0.8, 1.0, 1.2, 1.4 };
 
@@ -117,7 +117,7 @@ namespace Decentralized
                 foreach (var t in GasCuts)
                 {
                     double thr = t;
-                    list.Add(new PredictCandidate { Kind = PredictKind.Gas, Key = "gas", Title = "Gas", Param = thr, Tomorrow = true, Prob = (a, b) => PredictMath.GasFlat(day + 1, thr) });
+                    list.Add(new PredictCandidate { Kind = PredictKind.Gas, Key = "gas", Title = "Gas", Param = thr, Tomorrow = true, Prob = (a, b) => GasPublic(d, day + 1, thr) });
                 }
             if (d.Stable.CraWarnDay < 0 && d.Stable.CraSpiralDay < 0)
                 list.Add(new PredictCandidate { Kind = PredictKind.Cra, Key = "cra", Title = "CRA", Prob = (from, to) => PredictMath.CraWarnProb(d.Stable.CraSubsidy, CraDrain(d), day, from, to, CraHazard) });
@@ -126,6 +126,10 @@ namespace Decentralized
             return list;
         }
 
+        /// <summary>gas 盘的公开价：一半按真实相位、一半按不知道相位——七天周期是链上公开的，但盘口里的 NPC 只有一半在看；自己数清周期的人还有一点优势。</summary>
+        private static double GasPublic(SaveData d, int day, double thr) =>
+            d.GasPhase < 0 ? PredictMath.GasFlat(day, thr) : 0.5 * PredictMath.GasAtLeast(day, d.GasPhase, thr) + 0.5 * PredictMath.GasFlat(day, thr);
+
         private static double CraHazard => 1 - Math.Pow(1 - Tuning.CraSpiralWeekly, 1.0 / 7);
         private static double CraDrain(SaveData d) => (Tuning.CraNpcStake + d.Staking.Earning) * d.Stable.CraRate;
 
@@ -191,7 +195,7 @@ namespace Decentralized
                 case PredictKind.Price:
                     return PredictMath.PriceAtLeast(d.Market.Price, d.Market.Anchor(d.ActiveEvents), Tuning.PscVol, Tuning.Revert, Math.Max(1, m.ToDay - day), m.Param);
                 case PredictKind.Gas:
-                    return d.GasPhase < 0 ? (double?)null : PredictMath.GasAtLeast(m.ToDay, d.GasPhase, m.Param);
+                    return d.GasPhase < 0 ? (double?)null : GasPublic(d, m.ToDay, m.Param);
                 case PredictKind.Cra:
                     if (d.Stable.CraWarnDay >= 0 || d.Stable.CraSpiralDay >= 0) return 0.02;
                     return PredictMath.CraWarnProb(d.Stable.CraSubsidy, CraDrain(d), day + 1, m.FromDay, m.ToDay, CraHazard);