第十阶段 stage 2（二）：CRA 部分抵押（储备、抵押率、挪用与崩盘线、劫掠补储备）、官方铸造与销毁排队、官方跑路、质押多币种入口
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@@ -1,19 +1,43 @@
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using System;
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using System.Collections.Generic;
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using System.Linq;
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namespace Decentralized.Domain
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{
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/// <summary>
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/// 三种稳定币的价格与状态：CRC（上层，托管银行出事时脱锚、可能减记），CRT（黑市，镇压或火并时脱锚，
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/// 镇压期间按黑市声望出卖客户），CRA（革命军，质押付息，补贴池告急或外生触发时进入三天死亡螺旋）。
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/// 镇压期间按黑市声望出卖客户），CRA（革命军，部分抵押：流通量 S、储备 R（CRC）、抵押率 c；质押利息以无抵押的新 CRA 付出，
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/// 稀释储备覆盖率 R/S；革命军挪用储备时 R/S 低于崩盘线进入三天死亡螺旋，劫掠上层补回储备）。
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/// </summary>
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public enum CraOrderKind { Minted, Burned, Lost }
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/// <summary>官方一级市场的排队单：铸造（存入 CRC 和 SPARK）或销毁（存入 CRA），到期结算，官方可能把它黑掉。</summary>
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public sealed class CraOrder
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{
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public int Id, Due;
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public string Wallet;
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public bool Mint;
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public double Cra, Crc, Spark, C;
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}
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public sealed class CraOrderEvent
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{
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public CraOrder Order;
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public CraOrderKind Kind;
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public double Cra, Crc, Spark;
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}
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public sealed class Stablecoins
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{
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public double Crc = 1, Crt = 1, Cra = 1;
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public int CrcDepegEnd = -1, CrtDepegEnd = -1;
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public bool CrcHaircutPending;
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public double CraSubsidy = Tuning.CraSubsidy0;
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public int CraWarnDay = -1, CraSpiralDay = -1;
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/// <summary>CRA 流通量与储备（CRC）；c 是现在铸造要求的 CRC 份额（0～1）。</summary>
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public double Supply = Tuning.CraS0, Reserve = Tuning.CraS0 * Tuning.CraC0, C = Tuning.CraC0;
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/// <summary>预兆日（新闻发出的那天）、预定的挪用日、崩盘开始日（-1 = 没有）。</summary>
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public int CraWarnDay = -1, CraEventDay = -1, CraCrashDay = -1;
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public List<CraOrder> Orders = new List<CraOrder>();
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public int OrderSeq;
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public double RevPower = 50;
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/// <summary>平衡代币 SPARK 的价格（信用点）；SparkPre 是螺旋开始前一刻的价格，螺旋三天按它的倍数走。</summary>
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public double Spark = Tuning.SparkStart, SparkPre = -1;
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@@ -45,7 +69,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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Crt = rng.Range(Tuning.CrtDepegMin, Tuning.CrtDepegMax);
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CrtDepegEnd = day + rng.Range(Tuning.CrtDepegDaysMin, Tuning.CrtDepegDaysMax);
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}
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if (ev == MarketEvent.RevRaidUpper) Spark *= Tuning.SparkRaidShock;
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if (ev == MarketEvent.RevRaidUpper) { Spark *= Tuning.SparkRaidShock; if (CraCrashDay < 0) Reserve += Tuning.CraLoot * Supply; }
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if (ev == MarketEvent.LowerUnrest) Spark *= Tuning.SparkUnrestShock;
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return 1;
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}
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@@ -57,36 +81,68 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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/// <summary>镇压开始时是否冻结玩家的 CRT：按黑市声望，声望越低越容易被黑市"出卖"。</summary>
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public static bool CrtFrozenByCrackdown(double blackMarketRep, Rng rng) => rng.Chance(CrtFreezeChance(blackMarketRep));
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/// <summary>铸造：用 CRA 按当前价换 SPARK，收手续费。余额不足返回 -1。</summary>
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public double Mint(Wallet w, double cra)
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/// <summary>储备覆盖率 R/S。</summary>
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public double Ratio => Supply > 0 ? Reserve / Supply : 1;
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/// <summary>崩盘线之上的储备（CRC）：吃空即必然崩盘。预测盘和线索用它估预兆。</summary>
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public double Cushion => Reserve - Tuning.CraCrashRatio * Supply;
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public static double Cushion0 => Tuning.CraS0 * (Tuning.CraC0 - Tuning.CraCrashRatio);
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/// <summary>每晚的垫子消耗：利息按无抵押的新 CRA 付出，每份把崩盘线抬高 CraCrashRatio。</summary>
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public static double CushionDrain(double stakedTotal, double rate) => stakedTotal * rate * Tuning.CraCrashRatio;
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/// <summary>储备覆盖率对应的价格：高于安全线为 1，线性降到崩盘线的 1 − CraDiscountMax。</summary>
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public static double PriceOfRatio(double r)
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{
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if (cra <= 0 || Spark <= 0 || w.Avail(Assets.CRA) + 1e-9 < cra) return -1;
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double got = cra * Cra / Spark * (1 - Tuning.SparkFee);
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w.Add(Assets.CRA, -cra); w.Add(Assets.SPARK, got);
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w.RecordBuy(Assets.SPARK, got, cra * Cra);
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return got;
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if (r >= Tuning.CraSafeRatio) return 1;
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double t = Math.Max(0, (r - Tuning.CraCrashRatio) / (Tuning.CraSafeRatio - Tuning.CraCrashRatio));
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return 1 - Tuning.CraDiscountMax * (1 - t);
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}
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/// <summary>销毁：用 SPARK 按当前价换 CRA，收手续费。余额不足返回 -1。</summary>
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public double Burn(Wallet w, double spark)
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/// <summary>铸造 cra 个 CRA 要的 CRC 和 SPARK 数量（SPARK 部分按现价折算）。</summary>
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public void Collateral(double cra, out double crc, out double spark)
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{
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if (spark <= 0 || Cra <= 0 || w.Avail(Assets.SPARK) + 1e-9 < spark) return -1;
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double got = spark * Spark / Cra * (1 - Tuning.SparkFee);
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w.Add(Assets.SPARK, -spark); w.Add(Assets.CRA, got);
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w.RecordBuy(Assets.CRA, got, spark * Spark);
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return got;
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crc = cra * C;
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spark = Spark > 0 ? cra * (1 - C) / Spark : 0;
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}
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public bool CraSubsidyLow => CraSubsidy <= Tuning.CraSubsidy0 * Tuning.CraSubsidyWarn;
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/// <summary>
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/// 铸造申请：从钱包扣 CRC 和 SPARK，排队 CraMintDaysMin..Max 天，到期铸出 CRA。余额不足返回 null。
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/// </summary>
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public CraOrder RequestMint(Wallet w, double cra, int day, Rng rng)
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{
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if (cra <= 0) return null;
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Collateral(cra, out double crc, out double spark);
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if (w.Avail(Assets.CRC) + 1e-9 < crc || w.Avail(Assets.SPARK) + 1e-9 < spark) return null;
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w.Add(Assets.CRC, -crc); w.Add(Assets.SPARK, -spark);
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var o = new CraOrder { Id = ++OrderSeq, Wallet = w.Address, Mint = true, Cra = cra, Crc = crc, Spark = spark, C = C, Due = day + rng.Range(Tuning.CraMintDaysMin, Tuning.CraMintDaysMax) };
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Orders.Add(o);
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return o;
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}
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/// <summary>销毁申请：从钱包扣 CRA，排队 CraUnlockDays 天，到期换回 CRC 和 SPARK。余额不足返回 null。</summary>
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public CraOrder RequestBurn(Wallet w, double cra, int day)
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{
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if (cra <= 0 || w.Avail(Assets.CRA) + 1e-9 < cra) return null;
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w.Add(Assets.CRA, -cra);
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var o = new CraOrder { Id = ++OrderSeq, Wallet = w.Address, Mint = false, Cra = cra, C = C, Due = day + Tuning.CraUnlockDays };
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Orders.Add(o);
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return o;
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}
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/// <summary>官方每晚黑掉一笔排队单的概率：系数 × (1 − CRA 价格)，价格不低于 1 时为 0。</summary>
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public double RugChance => Math.Max(0, 1 - Cra) * Tuning.CraRugPerDepeg;
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public bool CraSubsidyLow => Cushion <= Cushion0 * Tuning.CraSubsidyWarn;
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/// <summary>CRA 的预兆：外生螺旋的新闻已出，或补贴池告急（利率下调）。螺旋开始后不再算预兆。</summary>
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public bool CraWarning(int day) => (CraWarnDay >= 0 && CraWarnDay <= day || CraSubsidyLow) && Cra >= 0.97;
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public bool CraWarning(int day) => (CraWarnDay >= 0 && CraWarnDay <= day || CraSubsidyLow) && CraCrashDay < 0 && Cra >= 0.97;
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public double CraRate => CraSubsidyLow ? Tuning.CraRateLow : Tuning.CraRate;
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/// <summary>
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/// 夜间结算。返回 CRC 持有量要乘的系数（减记兑现时为 0.95，否则为 1）。
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/// playerStaked：玩家的 CRA 质押额，用来算补贴支出（玩家的利息由调用方按 <see cref="CraRate"/> 发放）。
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/// playerStaked：玩家的 CRA 质押额，用来算利息带来的稀释（玩家的利息由调用方按 <see cref="CraRate"/> 发放）。
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/// </summary>
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public double Night(int day, Rng rng, double playerStaked)
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{
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@@ -107,32 +163,87 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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if (RevHistory.Count > 7) RevHistory.RemoveAt(0);
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RevPower = Math.Max(0, Math.Min(100, RevPower + rng.Gauss() * 3));
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if (CraSpiralDay < 0)
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if (CraCrashDay < 0)
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{
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CraSubsidy -= (Tuning.CraNpcStake + playerStaked) * CraRate;
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bool revFalling = RevHistory.Count == 7 && RevPower < RevHistory[0] - 5;
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double weekly = Tuning.CraSpiralWeekly * (revFalling ? 3 : 1) * StoryMods.Current.CraSpiral(day);
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double daily = 1 - Math.Pow(1 - weekly, 1.0 / 7);
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if (CraWarnDay < 0 && (rng.Chance(daily) || CraSubsidy <= 0))
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double interest = (Tuning.CraNpcStake + playerStaked) * CraRate;
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Supply += interest;
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// 抵押率调整：价格低于 1 上调，回到 1 下调；兑付的 CRC 份额不超过储备均值（见 <see cref="Redeem"/>）
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if (Cra < 0.995) C = Math.Min(1, C + Tuning.CraCrStep);
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else if (Cra >= 0.999) C = Math.Max(Tuning.CraCrMin, C - Tuning.CraCrStep);
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if (CraEventDay < 0)
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{
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CraWarnDay = day;
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CraSpiralDay = day + rng.Range(Tuning.CraWarnLeadMin, Tuning.CraWarnLeadMax);
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bool revFalling = RevHistory.Count == 7 && RevPower < RevHistory[0] - 5;
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double weekly = Tuning.CraSpiralWeekly * (revFalling ? 3 : 1) * StoryMods.Current.CraSpiral(day);
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double daily = 1 - Math.Pow(1 - weekly, 1.0 / 7);
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if (rng.Chance(daily) || Cushion <= 0)
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{
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CraWarnDay = day;
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CraEventDay = day + rng.Range(Tuning.CraWarnLeadMin, Tuning.CraWarnLeadMax);
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}
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}
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else if (day >= CraEventDay)
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{
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// 挪用：储备被革命军拿走一部分，R/S 掉到崩盘线以下就是挤兑
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Reserve *= 1 - rng.Range(Tuning.CraEmbezzleMin, Tuning.CraEmbezzleMax);
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CraEventDay = -1; CraWarnDay = -1;
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if (Ratio < Tuning.CraCrashRatio) CraCrashDay = day;
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}
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}
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if (CraSpiralDay > 0 && day >= CraSpiralDay)
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if (CraCrashDay >= 0)
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{
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int k = Math.Min(day - CraSpiralDay, Tuning.CraSpiralPath.Length - 1);
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int k = Math.Min(day - CraCrashDay, Tuning.CraSpiralPath.Length - 1);
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Cra = Tuning.CraSpiralPath[k];
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if (SparkPre < 0) SparkPre = Spark;
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Spark = SparkPre * Tuning.SparkSpiralPath[Math.Min(day - CraSpiralDay, Tuning.SparkSpiralPath.Length - 1)];
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Spark = SparkPre * Tuning.SparkSpiralPath[Math.Min(day - CraCrashDay, Tuning.SparkSpiralPath.Length - 1)];
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}
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else
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{
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Cra = PriceOfRatio(Ratio);
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Spark *= Math.Exp(rng.Gauss() * Tuning.SparkVol) * StoryMods.Current.TakeSparkPush();
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Spark += (Tuning.SparkStart - Spark) * Tuning.SparkRevert;
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Spark = Math.Max(Tuning.SparkStart * Tuning.SparkMinMult, Math.Min(Tuning.SparkStart * Tuning.SparkMaxMult, Spark));
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}
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return crcFactor;
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}
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/// <summary>
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/// 销毁一份 CRA 的兑付：CRC 份额 = min(申请时的 c, 储备均值 R/S)，其余按现价用新增发的 SPARK 补。
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/// 返回 (CRC 数量, SPARK 数量)，并扣减储备和流通量。
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/// </summary>
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public void Redeem(double cra, double c, out double crc, out double spark)
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{
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double share = Math.Min(c, Ratio);
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crc = Math.Min(Reserve, cra * share);
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spark = Spark > 0 ? cra * (1 - crc / Math.Max(1e-9, cra)) / Spark : 0;
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Reserve -= crc; Supply = Math.Max(0, Supply - cra);
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}
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/// <summary>
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/// 夜间处理排队单：先对每一笔掷官方跑路（整笔丢失），再结算到期的。
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/// 铸造到期：CRC 进储备、SPARK 销毁、流通量增加；销毁到期：按 <see cref="Redeem"/> 兑付。
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/// </summary>
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public List<CraOrderEvent> NightOrders(int day, Rng rng)
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{
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var evs = new List<CraOrderEvent>();
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foreach (var o in Orders.ToList())
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{
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if (rng.Chance(RugChance)) { Orders.Remove(o); evs.Add(new CraOrderEvent { Order = o, Kind = CraOrderKind.Lost }); continue; }
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if (day < o.Due) continue;
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Orders.Remove(o);
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var ev = new CraOrderEvent { Order = o };
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if (o.Mint)
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{
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Supply += o.Cra; Reserve += o.Crc;
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ev.Kind = CraOrderKind.Minted; ev.Cra = o.Cra;
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}
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else
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{
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Redeem(o.Cra, o.C, out ev.Crc, out ev.Spark);
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ev.Kind = CraOrderKind.Burned;
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}
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evs.Add(ev);
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}
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return evs;
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}
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}
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}
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@@ -51,8 +51,15 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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public const double CrtSwapFee = 0.02;
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public const double CraRate = 0.005, CraRateLow = 0.002;
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public const int CraUnlockDays = 4;
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public const double CraSubsidy0 = 30000, CraSubsidyWarn = 0.2, CraNpcStake = 20000;
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public const double CraSpiralWeekly = 0.02;
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public const double CraSubsidyWarn = 0.2, CraNpcStake = 20000;
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/// <summary>CRA 部分抵押：初始流通量与抵押率、抵押率下限与每晚调整步长；R/S 安全线、崩盘线、安全线到崩盘线之间的最大折价；
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/// 挪用储备的比例范围；劫掠上层补回的储备（占流通量）；一级市场铸造等待天数；官方跑路系数（× (1 − CRA 价格)）。数值由 research/crasim 定。</summary>
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public const double CraS0 = 60000, CraC0 = 0.8, CraCrMin = 0.5, CraCrStep = 0.02;
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public const double CraSafeRatio = 0.6, CraCrashRatio = 0.35, CraDiscountMax = 0.15;
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public const double CraEmbezzleMin = 0.4, CraEmbezzleMax = 0.8, CraLoot = 0.09;
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public const int CraMintDaysMin = 1, CraMintDaysMax = 2;
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public const double CraRugPerDepeg = 1;
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public const double CraSpiralWeekly = 0.03;
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public const int CraWarnLeadMin = 4, CraWarnLeadMax = 7;
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public static readonly double[] CraSpiralPath = { 0.85, 0.30, 0.02 };
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/// <summary>平衡代币 SPARK：起始价与长期锚（信用点）、日波动率、每晚向锚回归的比例、价格上下限（锚的倍数）；铸销手续费；
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@@ -172,11 +172,23 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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["CoinPayCrt"] = Tuning.CoinPayCrt,
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["CoinPayPremium"] = Tuning.CoinPayPremium,
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["CoinPayPsc"] = Tuning.CoinPayPsc,
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["CraC0"] = Tuning.CraC0,
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["CraCrMin"] = Tuning.CraCrMin,
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["CraCrStep"] = Tuning.CraCrStep,
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["CraCrashRatio"] = Tuning.CraCrashRatio,
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["CraDiscountMax"] = Tuning.CraDiscountMax,
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["CraEmbezzleMax"] = Tuning.CraEmbezzleMax,
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["CraEmbezzleMin"] = Tuning.CraEmbezzleMin,
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["CraLoot"] = Tuning.CraLoot,
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["CraMintDaysMax"] = Tuning.CraMintDaysMax,
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["CraMintDaysMin"] = Tuning.CraMintDaysMin,
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["CraNpcStake"] = Tuning.CraNpcStake,
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["CraRate"] = Tuning.CraRate,
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["CraRateLow"] = Tuning.CraRateLow,
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["CraRugPerDepeg"] = Tuning.CraRugPerDepeg,
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["CraS0"] = Tuning.CraS0,
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["CraSafeRatio"] = Tuning.CraSafeRatio,
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["CraSpiralWeekly"] = Tuning.CraSpiralWeekly,
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["CraSubsidy0"] = Tuning.CraSubsidy0,
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["CraSubsidyWarn"] = Tuning.CraSubsidyWarn,
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["CraUnlockDays"] = Tuning.CraUnlockDays,
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["CraWarnLeadMax"] = Tuning.CraWarnLeadMax,
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