Ponzi via signed wallet calls; counter informants guarantee prediction markets

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized/PredictGame.cs

@@ -46,12 +46,12 @@ namespace Decentralized
             return c == 0 ? 0.50 : c == 1 ? 0.35 : c == 2 ? 0.25 : 0;
         }
 
-        private static double EventProb(StoreEventManager mgr, string id, int days)
+        private static double EventProb(StoreEventManager mgr, string id, int days, bool ignoreCooldown = false)
         {
-            var pool = StoreEventManager.normalEventBlueprints.Where(e => !mgr.IsEventOnCooldown(e.identifier)).ToList();
+            var pool = StoreEventManager.normalEventBlueprints.Where(e => ignoreCooldown || !mgr.IsEventOnCooldown(e.identifier)).ToList();
             var bp = pool.Find(e => e.identifier == id);
             if (bp == null) return 0;
-            return PredictMath.EventProb(DayChance(mgr), bp.odd, pool.Sum(e => (double)e.odd), days);
+            return PredictMath.EventProb(ignoreCooldown ? 0.35 : DayChance(mgr), bp.odd, pool.Sum(e => (double)e.odd), days);
         }
 
         /// <summary>已经排进日程的事件 / 派系行动在窗口里的开始日（known = 只看玩家已知的）。</summary>
@@ -133,10 +133,39 @@ namespace Decentralized
         public static void Morning(SaveData d, int day)
         {
             if (!Available(day)) return;
+            ForceKnown(d, day);
             var made = d.Predict.Refill(day, d.Rng, Candidates(day));
             foreach (var m in made) Log.Info($"预测盘口 #{m.Id}：{m.Kind} {m.Key} {m.Title} 阈值 {m.Param} 窗口 {m.FromDay}-{m.ToDay} 先验 {m.P0:0.000}");
         }
 
+        /// <summary>
+        /// 柜台线人（游戏里卖消息的顾客）、传闻纸条和派系特权会把事件排进日程且标为已知：每个这样的事件保证有一个盘口（窗口 = 开始那天），
+        /// 开盘价按公开信息下的基础概率，不因为已经排期而抬高——知道的人能赚到价格追上来之前的差。开始日是明天的来不及，不开。
+        /// </summary>
+        private static void ForceKnown(SaveData d, int day)
+        {
+            var mgr = StoreStation.Instance?.storeEventManager;
+            if (mgr == null) return;
+            var bk = d.Predict;
+            for (int i = 0; i < mgr.futurEvents.Count; i++)
+            {
+                var e = mgr.futurEvents[i];
+                int start = day + mgr.futurEventsDay[i];
+                if (!e.IsKnown || start < day + 2 || e.eventType == StoreEvent.EventType.COSMETIC) continue;
+                bool op = e.isFactionOperation;
+                var kind = op ? PredictKind.Faction : PredictKind.Event;
+                string key = op ? e.sourceFaction : e.identifier;
+                if (!op && !StoreEventManager.normalEventBlueprints.Any(b => b.identifier == key)) continue;
+                if (bk.Markets.Any(m => m.Outcome < 0 && m.Kind == kind && m.Key == key && m.FromDay <= start && m.ToDay >= start)) continue;
+                if (bk.Markets.Count(m => m.Outcome < 0) >= Tuning.PredictOpenMax + 2) break;
+                double p = op ? PredictMath.FactionProb(1) : EventProb(mgr, key, 1, true);
+                string title = op ? L.T("predict.faction." + key) : e.GetDisplayName();
+                var m2 = PredictMarket.Create(++bk.Seq, kind, key, title, 0, day, start, start, p);
+                bk.Markets.Add(m2);
+                Log.Info($"线人情报开盘 #{m2.Id}：{kind} {key} 第 {start} 天，先验 {p:0.000}");
+            }
+        }
+
         // ——— 公开信息下的合理概率（盘口夜里向它靠拢） ———
 
         /// <summary>